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The global number of out-of-school children and youth has climbed to 272 million, marking a rise of over 21 million from the previous estimate, UNESCO reports.
11% of primary school-age children (around 78 million) are out of school. (AI Generated Image)
The global number of out-of-school children and youth has risen to 272 million — an increase of over 21 million compared to the previous estimate, news agency PTI quoted UNESCO’s Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Team as saying.
The latest figures highlight significant setbacks in global education efforts, with countries projected to fall short by 75 million learners from their national education targets by 2025.
The GEM report attributes this surge to two primary factors. First, new enrolment and attendance data account for 8 million, or 38%, of the increase. A key contributor to this is Afghanistan’s ban on secondary education for girls, implemented in 2021.
Second, revised UN population estimates contribute the remaining 13 million (or 62%) of the rise. The 2024 World Population Prospects suggest that the population of children aged 6 to 17 in 2025 is 49 million higher (up by 3.1%) than previously projected.
The report emphasises the growing educational crisis in conflict-affected areas, pointing out that data collection during emergencies is often disrupted, leading to a potential underestimation of out-of-school figures. The model assumes normal progression of school-age children, which fails during crises when education access can change abruptly.
The method of estimating the out-of-school population also matters. If administrative data is used without updated enrolment figures, the entire increase in school-age population is considered out of school. However, when survey data is used, the additional population is split proportionally between in-school and out-of-school groups.
Based on current estimates:
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11% of primary school-age children (around 78 million) are out of school.
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15% of lower secondary adolescents (about 64 million) are out of school.
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31% of upper secondary youth (nearly 130 million) remain out of school.
The model uses a blend of administrative, survey, and census data to develop consistent global and regional trends. At the national level, it reconciles varying data sources and fills gaps using projections, which may differ from official country-level statistics based on single-year administrative data.
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According to the SDG 4 Scorecard, if countries meet their education targets, the out-of-school population could be reduced by 165 million by 2030. However, the outlook for 2025 remains grim.
Projections show that countries will fall short by four percentage points for primary and lower secondary education, and by six percentage points for upper secondary levels—leading to a shortfall of 75 million students relative to national targets by 2025.
The report underscores the urgent need for targeted education policies, especially in conflict zones and areas facing sudden demographic changes.
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